Assumptions, we all have them. It is the natural progression of the human mind when only the vaguest of information is available, or I should say, observed. There is a famous exchange between Sherlock Holmes and Dr Watson where Holmes asks Watson how many stairs led up to there illustrious apartment on Bakers St. Watson was unaware of their number. Holmes proceeded to illustrate the difference between seeing and observing. Often we fail to observe the obvious, letting the apparent become an unseen apparition. This can come out of habit, from tradition, based in conventional wisdom or from lack of time.
One recent example is the ever present haggling over who won in Lebanon. With only a History Channel view of war, the west finds itself bewildered over the outcome. Even with the mass proliferation of pundants no one has put forward a conclusive answer. Hezbullah got socked, losing 90+% of their long range missiles, nearly 25% of their fighting force and much of their infrastructure. However Israel still doesn't have its 2 soldiers back and Osama is now lonely at night since the Arab street has swapped beds in favor Nasralla. Lebanon clearly lost, but who won? The problem we have is an assumption about what winning means.
I remember the first shock to my assumptions about how war is fought. Way back in my teen years I found an old book in a box in my parents’ home. It was a thick and musty book, but the title quickly caught my eye: "A History of Warfare, Montgomery of Alamein." It is a review of warfare, tactics, tools and generals throughout history.
Already a history geek, much of the book was fascinating but not earth shaking. Until I got to his dissertations on modern war and read his sever doubts about the Geneva conventions. His divergence from conventional thought was not because he was a barbarian and "wanted to kill 'em #@$% all!" Rather he felt that chemical and biological weapons could be developed in less than lethal forms that could incompasitate enemies. The common assumptions would lead to more deaths than necessary.
The first General to beat the Nazis, a hero from the N. African campaign and from the Battle of the Bulge dealt the first blow to my conventional wisdom about war. More came after reading the Art of War, and simply living life. What does it mean to "win" a war, how do you achieve that? Is the war on terror different, or are we simply putting on the blinders of our assumptions and mouthing the line that victory in Iraq or the GWOT is to hard to define.
Unfortunately victory in true total war is easy to define, but no one wants to go dig out the easy answer when you can make big dough spouting needless nuance. Victory in war is achieved when you enemy no longer has the will to fight. This is entirely different that no longer having the capability to fight, which unfortunately is considered equal in modern western eyes, wich define wins and loses in terms of square miles occupied and lives lost.
Let’s return to the Lebanese situation. Hezbullah’s ability to fight is severely retarded at the moment, but their will is strengthened. They lost about 6 times as many men as Israel and an estimated $3-4 Billion in equipment. They know as well as the rest of the world that new weapons and recruits will easily fill the vacancies provided on a complimentary bases by the IDF.
Israel on the other hand lost very little. One years agricultural crop from the Galilee and around 100 casualties. However their will cracked under the mildest pressure from the most inept of all world bodies, the UN. Hezbullah came out of the scrap with two broken ribs, three missing toes and a bad concussion and Israel was stung with a hang nail and a bad zit day, but it was Israel’s lost will to fight that ended the conflict.
Ability can be rebuilt the will to fight rarely can. Look at Japan and WWII. Their strong war will propelled them into the modern industrialized world decades before the rest of Asia was thinking about it. They struck hard and fast at the US, disabling the US pacific fleet at the time. Their attack destroyed much of the US’s ability to fight at the time, but it awoke the US will. The US’s will to fight built a better fleet at break neck speed and soon was giving Japanese carriers tours of the ocean floor.
Japan did not lose their will to fight until the second nuke was dropped on their homeland. But when the giant fell, it fell hard. She went from the warrior of the rising sun to the angelic icon of a modern pacifistic nation relying on treaties and foreign powers for security. Sixty years has passed and she still remains in the state she was when pens signed her capitulation on the deck of the USS Missouri.
"Moreover, the enemy has begun to employ a new and most cruel bomb, the power of which to do damage is, indeed, incalculable, taking the toll of many innocent lives. Should we continue to fight, not only would it result in an ultimate collapse and obliteration of the Japanese nation, but also it would lead to the total extinction of human civilization.
Such being the case, how are We to save the millions of Our subjects, or to atone Ourselves before the hallowed spirits of Our Imperial Ancestors? This is the reason why We have ordered the acceptance of the provisions of the Joint Declaration of the Powers. " Emperor Hirohito from his surrender address to the Japanese people.
Japan’s broken by her fears, her continued struggle had turned futile, her will was gone. The infamous war in Vietnam is similar. The US retained the most potent war machine known to man but as the faint will that was present at the engagement of hostilities faded with each horizontal refresh of the evening news the Vietcong secured victory.
So the question for today is what action are we taking to break our enemy’s will to fight and what is attacking our will. As long as we view victory in terms on territory occupied or lives taken and or lost our victory will remain elusive even while all of the enemy’s tactics are based on breaking our will to fight.
Victory will never come home to the capitals of the west until we become determined to crush our opponent’s will to fight, and I quite fear that our willingness to fight will snap in the face of terror long before we realize what true victory really looks like. We can't win fighting a square wheeled war.