Posted by
Jack Inaboks on Wednesday, September 06, 2006 8:18:14 PM
Having spent a little too much time pondering Iran, I have come to a position unorthodox to my usual hawkish tendencies. I am not in favor of placing sanctions on Iran, unless they are a very short term prelude to armed intervention.
The point is this: Iranian youth unemployment is over 30% and is forecasted exceed 50% soon, 65% of the Iranian work force reportedly only has short term work and there is only 1 person earning an income for about every 4 Iranians. The economy of the Persian nation isn't "cooking."
Sanctions will only make this worse, which is the objective of employing them. However taking the example of post Versailles Germany a bad economy can easily be used as a tool to manipulate ones own population. By imposing economic sanctions on Iran, especially unilateral ones, we will only give Ahmadinejad the breath needed to spin half-truth propaganda off of his proficiently forked tongue.
Undoubtedly China and Russia will lend Iran the wit and might of the dragon and bear, bypassing the sanctions in ways necessary to keep the regime from booking one way Aeroflot tickets into exile. In the mean while the Iranian government will not face the mob for its economic failures by its citizens. The regime can then shift blame to the US as easily as it could beat a blind man in a game of backgammon.
In short economic sanctions will in the long or mid term strengthen the power and abilities of the Mullahs who rule the Iranians and from what we have seen in N. Korea, do little to stop nuclear or other military ambitions. There are wiser ways to pick this fight, I hope somebody in power wakes up to them.